Oil below $ 30 is causing a lot of “collateral damage”, one of those “injured” is Sacyr, whose stake in Repsol is worth 30% more than the price of the construction company on the stock market. Bankinter analysts warn that the oil company could have to cut the dividend. As recognized by Repsol itself, the barrel must be kept above $ 50 in order not to suffer financial stress.
A barrel of Brent crude, a benchmark in Europe, has been below $ 30 for three days, trading at $ 29.8, but has been installed below $ 45 since last November 26, 2015, according to Reuters figures. . A positive figure for the Spanish economy, since according to Funcas calculations a 10% drop in the price of oil in euros represents two tenths more growth. But not so good for the oil companies, which see their margins dwindle and put their shareholders in trouble.
This is the case of Sacyr, which only at the beginning of the year already loses 22% of its value on the stock market, due to its exposure to the price of crude oil through its subsidiary Repsol, among others. As Bankinter explains in its analysis blog, ¿the 8.73% that Sacyr owns in Repsol has a market value of 1,061 million euros, lower than the value of 100% of Sacyr in the Stock Market, which is 737.9 million euros. In other words, there is a difference of 30%, more than 300 million euros, between the value of the investee and the company itself.
The bank does not doubt that this is the responsibility of Sacyr itself and points out two sources of concern: on the one hand, doubts about some projects in the Panama Canal, and on the other, its high debt, which is 4,224 million euros. or 2.18 times your equity. Doubts, what a priori they reopen the melon of debt refinancing.
A debt that Sacyr has paid so far thanks, in part, to the Repsol dividend. Without going that far, a week ago it collected 57 million euros precisely from that payment to shareholders. For its part, today it became known that the board of directors, which include Antonio Brufau, Josu Jon Imaz, Isidré Fainé or Manuel Manrique, have chosen to collect it in shares.
A dividend, that of Repsol, which Bankinter believes could suffer a snip, Goldman Sachs was already hesitant about this remuneration although with the plan presented by the oil company 2016-2020 he changed his mind. In fact, the bank’s analysis department says verbatim among the risks for Sacyr: ¿the very high probability that Repsol will cut the dividend¿.
THE REPSOL PLAN DOES NOT INCLUDE CRUDE AT 30 DOLLARS
Bankinter analysts do not explain more about Repsol’s dividend, but in its 2016-2020 strategic plan it is the company itself that gives the keys. In that presentation that was released in mid-October of last year, the oil company contemplates two scenarios regarding the price of crude oil. One first with a barrel at 80 dollars, while the so-called ¿acid¿ ¿normally named adverse among analysts- places it at 50 dollars a barrel. Moreover, they ensure that their breakevan (breakeven) is at $ 50, a figure that the commodity markets have not seen for months and that with the removal of sanctions on Iran seems to be even further away.
The explanation is that for every dollar that the price of a barrel of Brent falls, it represents an impact of 70 million dollars. Thus, the price of crude oil at current levels can lead to a breach in the company’s accounts. Only in the period from 2016 to 2020 does it plan to distribute, according to its own business plan, 5,000 million euros in dividends, as long as the ¿acid¿ scenario is met, which means that the barrel is on average ¿constant¿ in the 50 dollars.
So far this year, Repsol has dropped 14% on the stock market and is trading at around 8.7 euros, levels that will mean higher provisions for Sacyr on its investee. According to the group’s latest figures, which go up to September, it had a net profit of 532 million euros, thanks to the capital gains it obtained from the sale of Testa. But it allocated 373 million to provision for the loss of value of Repsol. Thus, it went from having each Repsol share recorded in books at 21.1 euros to 17.5 euros, far from the 9 euros that the oil company currently grazes on the Ibex 35.